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Case 9.2 Fiasco in Florida

Case 9.2 Fiasco in Florida
a. 2909176 – 2907451 = 1725 votes

b.

Looking at the scatter plot we find that there appear to be a few outliers. These outliers represent the Palm Beach County, Dade County and Broward County.

c. y(hat) = b1x + bo  where b1 is the slope = cov (x,y)/Sx2  and bo is the Y intercept

Using the Excel, we find that the regression equation is:

y(hat) = 0.0041x + 79.729

d.  R2 = 0.4748

e. Using the equation: y* =

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b0 + b1x*

The confidence interval for the number of votes is calculated to be y* + t*s, where the y* is the estimate of the mean number of votes.

y* = 0.0041 *  268945 + 79.729 = 1182.4

t*(67-2) = (2.390 + 2.381)/2 = 2.3855

s(y) = 449.333 (using excel)

y* + t*s = 1182.4 + 2.3855  * 449.333 = ( 111, 2254)

f.

Looking at the scatter plot we find that there appear to be a few outliers. These outliers represent the Palm Beach County and Dade County.

g. y(hat) = b1x + bo  where b1 is the slope = cov (x,y)/Sx2  and  bo is the Y intercept

Using the Excel, we find that the regression equation is:

y = 0.0049x + 46.094

h. R2 = 0.389

i. Using the equation: y* =

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b0 + b1x*

The confidence interval for the number of votes is calculated to be y* + t*s, where the y* is the estimate of the mean number of votes.

y* = 0.0049 *  152846+ 46.094 = 795.0

t*(67-2) = (2.390 + 2.381)/2 = 2.3855

s(y) = 449.333 (using excel)

y* + t*s = 795.0 + 2.3855  * 449.333 = ( NA, 1867)

lower interval = 0 and upper interval = 1867

The actual number of votes that Buchanan received in Palm Beach County is very high compared to our results. This is because Palm Beach County is an extreme outlier.

j. These results suggest that the confusion might have took place while voting, because the results of the interpolation show us that he was likely to receive much lesser amount of votes. The assumptions being made here, that the estimate are correct, is that the relationship is linear, independent and constant variance.

References
Book

Ragsdale, C. T. (2006). Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis: A Practical Introduction to Management Science. Cengage Learning.

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