It’s always the economy
To predict on a result of an election, political analysts rely on election models which gives a close prediction on who will win in every November election by analyzing the performance of the economy. Such a model does not rely on the candidate or level of campaigns being conducted. Four months prior to the November elections, the political team wants great focus to be given to the political problem of deficits while the economic team wants great focus to be given to economic stimulus.
From past experiences, elections are much dependent on the level of disposable income of voters which reflects the level of economic performance. This was the case that happened during the 1964, 1972 and 1984 elections (Farrell, 2010). In the present case, the stimulus package in 2009 did a lot to help in helping the economy and improving the income level in the past one year. However, with the November elections in four months time, there is a great need to focus on the disposable income at the hands of the voters rather than the deficits created by such a move.
In short, a notable growth in income will be very crucial within the next four months. If the ruling administration needs to secure a win, it should concern on building an image of an improved income level in the minds of the voters. This will raise the approval ratings of the administration for the time being. This will work out well while it remains in power to correct the problem of deficit later. ?
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References Ferrell, S. J. (2010). Congressional Quarterly –Getty Images. Newsweek, July 19, Retrieved on August 2, 2010 from http://www. newsweek. com/2010/07/10/it-s-always-the-economy-stupid. html.