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The United States Presidential Elections: The business impact

Abstract

Often times, elections will either mean a continuation of the policies of the present administration if the candidate of that administration succeeds in gaining the nod of the electorate, or a possible change in the policies if the opposing candidate eventually wins power in that state. Be it in business, local governance, foreign policy, or other areas, elections usually have an effect on the actions of the society that the eventual power will oversee. In the business sector, business will see how that power will address the issues in that sector, or how will the leader implement policies with regard to their sector.

In the next few days, the United States will again go to the polls to choose between the two candidates seeking to run the country in the next four years (Wing-Keung Wong & Michael McAleer, 2007). Both of the candidates are immense pressure to find ways and offer solutions to get the United States out of the economic morass the country is languishing in (BBC News Channel, 2008). A general indicator of the health of the economy of the United States is Wall Street, or the stock exchange (Wing & McAleer, 2007). It was observed that the stock

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market usually went down during the early part of the presidency, and then experienced a period of recovery in the latter stages of the administration (Wing & McAleer, 2007). This cycle will reach the pinnacle by the third or fourth year of the leader’s term (Wing & McAleer, 2007).

The tends also shows that if a Republican is holding power, there is a greater chance that the party will be engaged in consistent policy finagling than in situations that a Democrat was in power (Wing & McAleer, 2007). Although there are many tools that can be utilized in the observation of the cycles in the stock market in relation to the political exercises in the United States, the Kitchin or Presidential cycle is most widely used (Wing & McAleer, 2007). In the model, one of the reasons being cited as to why stocks dip during the early part of a new president’s term is the possibility that the presidents may enact or push for legislation or reform measures that are unpopular in relation to the economy of the state (Wing & McAleer, 2007). Both candidates, Arizona Senator John McCain and Illinois Senator Barack Obama, have laid several measures they claim will counteract the current economic downturn in the United States economy (Reuters, 2008). McCain, the Republican candidate, is pushing for a economic bailout package amounting to more than $50 billion (Reuters, 2008).

Obama, on the other hand, is advocating for another economic stimulus package with a price tag of $ 60 billion (Reuters, 2008). Both of the presidential hopefuls are trying to surmount enormous pressure to overcome the sagging U.S economy (BBC, 2008). It is then to be deduced that one way to judge the political exercise is that the economy plays a major part in the elections, and all attendant activities to the exercise, such as debates and campaigns, are just non-essentials in the outcome of the exercise (John Irons, 2000). Whatever the outcome, the presidential elections are sure to affect not only business, but other sectors as well. It must therefore be taken as a serious matter by the incoming leader, or else, the tenure of that person will eventually be cut short.

References

BBC News Channel. (2008, 5 September). US rules out new economic package. BBC News      Channel Business

            http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7600379.stm

Irons, J. (2000). The economy and U.S presidential elections. Retrieved October 27, 2008,         from http://www.argmax.com/mt_blog/archive/2000_08_the_economy_and_1.php

Reuters. (2008, 14 October). Factbox: candidates propose competing economic plans. Reuters

            Politics

            http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49D89920081014?            pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=10112

Wing, K.W., Afleer, M. (2007). A reflection of presidential election cycle in American stock       market. Retrieved October 27, 2008, from

            http://www.econ.cuhk.edu.hk/dept/seminar/06-07/2nd-      term/Presidential_Election_Cycle.pdf.

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